A pandemic is worse than an epidemic. Epidemic - from the Greek epidemos meaning 'among the people'
Pandemic - from the Greek pandemos meaning 'all the people'

When there is an epidemic, the sickness is spread "among the people." A pandemic effects "all the people." According to the World Health Organization, the bird flu is coming and will effect everyone, making it the first pandemic of the 21st century.

There are some things you should know about this new threat.

Pandemics historically occur every 20 to 30 years when the genetic makeup of a flu strain mutates so dramatically that people have little or no immunity built up from previous flu bouts. It has been 36 years since the last pandemic. All the great flu pandemics of the last century have originated in southern China.

There were been three pandemics in the 20th century, all spread worldwide within a year of being detected.

The worst was the Spanish flu in 1918-19, when as many as 50 million people worldwide are thought to have died, nearly half of them young, healthy adults.

The Asian flu pandemic of 1957 claimed nearly 70,000 lives in the United States and one million worldwide after spreading from China.

In 1968, the Hong Kong flu pandemic is also said to have killed around one million.

These pandemics were believed to be mutations of pig viruses.

This new pandemic is a mutation from a deadly virus carried by chickens. The World Health Organization is warning the world to get ready for this next pandemic that will affect '25-30% of the world's population.' The most optimistic scenario projections place the death toll at 2-7 million. There is no effective vaccine yet. The U.S. will start testing in early 2005. Two dates , 'March 1005' and '2007' are given when asked when a vaccine will be available. (Don't ask me to explain the vast time differences.) Information coming from the "experts" is strangely inconsistent. I do not believe there is a conspiracy. They just don't know.

Even information pertaining to this validity of this new threat has been inconsistent.

On September 27, 2004, CNN carried a story quoting International health officials at an emergency meeting in Bangkok saying, "there is no evidence that bird flu has been passed from one human to another."
www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD...index.html

The following day, Sept. 28, 2004, MSNBC carried a story, announcing the first documented case of a human-to-human transfer of the virus.
msnbc.msn.com/id/6121998/

Officials are not publicly discussing worst case scenarios, except to say, "as the bird flu virus stays pretty much as it is, we don’t have much to worry about."
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It is interesting to note that the WHO projects an estimated 25-30% of the worlds population will be affected, yet they state around 2-7 million will die. These figures do not add up. So far, 44 people in Asia have come down with the virus after coming into contact with infected fowl. It is now proven the virus is also passed from person to person. Deaths occurred in more than 70 per cent of the cases, most of which occurred in young, healthy children and adults.

To calculate a fairly accurate number of potential deaths, it would only make sense to take the projected number of people who would be affected and divide it by the known fatality rate of this virus, which is more than 70 percent. So, take 25-30% of the world's population and figure that 70% of those will die. The world population is estimated at around six billion, so we divide that by 25%, leaving us 1.5 billion. We then divide that by the known fatality statistics of 70%, which leaves us with a projection that around 1 billion people will die. (I cannot find any information showing where the WHO came up with the 2-7 million death toll number. The math doesn't work, given the projected number of those who will be effected and the fatality rate of the virus.)

"It is possible that 11,000 to 58,000 deaths could occur in Canada," said Dr. Teresa Tam, who is in charge of pandemic preparations at the Public Health Agency of Canada. Again, this does not match with the 25-30% affected ratio and 70% current fatality rate.

Beside the fact that this new strain of flu virus stands to be one of the most devastating in history, the public doesn't seem to be too concerned. Interestingly, CNN ran the pandemic story November 25th and ran the same one again December 13th. All they did was change the date on the article. In fact, the URL still points to the old location of the article. Even the picture in the article is the same. Apparently, they wanted to tell people again. (Am I the only one who notices these things?) My wife calls me a 'news junky' and I supposed that's fairly accurate.

Imagine, one of every six people you see on the street could die from this new virus strain. One out of six people working in your office could die. One of every six of those who attend your church could die. Ignoring the possibility the virus might personally effect you, what are you doing to reach the 1 in 6 that could potentially die? Are they saved? Is their heart right with God? Have you asked them?


- Rod


Additional References:

www.cnn.com/2004/HEALT...index.html
www.cbc.ca/storyview/A...41207.html
www.birdflu.gov.sg/new...0help.html

• Topic: Public Service

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